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Chapter 1 · Unit 1-3

Modeling, Applications & Taiwan

How do models describe water? What makes Taiwan's mountains and rivers different?

Textbook pp. 8–10

Goals

After this unit, you can…

  1. Tell deterministic from probabilistic models and lumped from distributed models, and weigh the strengths and costs of each
  2. Describe Taiwan's terrain, rainfall and rivers, and the water-resource problems they create
  3. Use a mass curve to find how large a reservoir must be for a reliable water supply

This unit uses real data

The 3D terrain of Taiwan comes from SRTM satellite elevation data, about 280 m per cell. We will recompute the textbook's numbers ourselves and compare.

1.3 Hydrologic modeling

Two ways to model: a scale model, or mathematics

Physical modelA scaled-down physical replica. Its scale differs too much from the real system, so it is seldom used.
Mathematical modelEquations describe how water moves; the workhorse of hydrologic analysis.
Deterministic modelBuilt on physical laws: continuity + momentum equations (PDEs). The same input always gives the same output.
Probabilistic modelHydrologic variables are governed by chance; the question is "how likely is it to occur?"
ConceptualSimplifies the PDEs into ordinary differential or algebraic equations
ParametricFits parameters to test or record data for simplified equations
StatisticalProbability that a given event occurs within the period of record
StochasticTreats hydrologic time series as random processes

Another split: space

Lumped vs. distributed

Lumped model: the whole watershed is one uniform unit with a single set of parameters. The classic example is the unit hydrograph: it shows how runoff varies in time, but not where in space.

Distributed model: the watershed is split into many cells, each with its own parameters. The dynamic wave model, for example, describes flow varying in both time and space.

The cost: distributed models need many spatially varying parameters and heavy computation, which still limits them in practice.

1.4 Applications of hydrology

What is all this for?

Hydrologic equations + modeling methods → simulate hydrologic processes → solve water-resources engineering problems. Four typical examples:

Rainfall frequency analysis→Urban drainage; soil and water conservation in mountain areasChapters 3, 9
Flow frequency analysis→Levee height design; water allocation and managementChapter 9
Rainfall-runoff models→Watershed improvement works; real-time flood forecastingChapter 7
Probable maximum flood→Dam spillway designChapters 8–9

Pollution control, ecological conservation and erosion control also draw on hydrology; the textbook leaves these to specialized books.

1.5 Taiwan's land and water

A long, narrow island

Taiwan lies in the western Pacific between Japan and the Philippines; the Tropic of Cancer crosses its southern half. Total area is about 36,000 km².

Adding up the cells above 0 m in this satellite terrain data gives about 36,600 km², close to the textbook figure.

On the right is the real terrain, with heights exaggerated 3× so the relief stands out.

The Central Range runs down the middle

Mountains to plains

ElevationTextbookOurs
Mountainsabove 1000 m32%32%
Hills & terraces100–1000 m31%39%
Alluvial plainsbelow 100 m37%29%

The mountain share matches. The 100 m hill–plain boundary is sensitive to data resolution and to what counts as a "terrace", hence the gap of a few points.

The plains are where people and farming are concentrated.

What the mountains are made of

Weak rock, severe erosion

Taiwan's mountains are mostly sedimentary and metamorphic rock: weak, easily fractured and deeply weathered.

Add intense rainfall and fast flow, and erosion is severe; frequent earthquakes also destabilize hillslopes.

So Taiwan's rivers carry heavy sediment loads during floods; this will come up again.

Rain

Plenty of rain, all at once

  • Mean annual rainfall is about 2500 mm, 2.5 times the world average
  • May–October brings three-quarters of the annual rain, mostly as typhoon downpours
  • From 1897 to 1997, 350 typhoons hit Taiwan, 3.5 per year on average, plus over a thousand rainstorms
  • From 1983 to 1995, natural disasters cost NT$12.8 billion a year on average, about 4.6 times the fire losses over the same period
Taiwan 2500 mm World avg. ≈ 1000 mm 3/4 May–Oct Share of annual rainfall

Rivers

Short, steep, fast

Taiwan has 129 rivers. All are short with small basins, steep and fast-flowing; most show a sharp contrast between flood flow and low flow.

Specific discharge: discharge divided by drainage area, in m³/s/km². It lets rivers of different sizes be compared fairly.

0.010.1110 Zhuoshui Shinano Yangtze

Zhuoshui River: 7.7 m³/s/km² (textbook), about 25 times the Shinano and 450 times the Yangtze; the other two are derived from these ratios. Log scale.

Putting it together

Too much, or too little

Weak rock, steep fast rivers, and rain packed into a few months: floods are frequent in the wet season, yet water often runs short in the dry season.

So we must regulate rivers to control floods and store wet-season water for the dry season.

How large must a reservoir be? The tool used in Exercises 7 and 8 of Chapter 1 is the mass curve.

Exercise 8: mean monthly river flow (m³/s) Demand 40

Supplement: mass curve (Rippl method)

Keep adding up the flow

  1. Mass curve: from a starting time, add up river flow month by month. The slope of the curve is the flow at that time: steep = wet, flat = dry.
  2. Demand line: a constant demand D accumulates into a straight line of slope D.
  3. Find the storage: draw demand lines (tangents) from peaks of the curve. Where a demand line rises highest above the curve is the largest deficit the reservoir must cover = required storage.
  4. In reverse: for a known storage, find the steepest demand line whose gap stays within that storage. Its slope is the flow that can be supplied reliably.

Interactive lab

How big a reservoir?

Using the monthly flows of Exercise 8, adjust the demand D. Bottom left is the mass curve; the 3D reservoir runs month by month for two years. Try to:

  1. Set demand to 40 m³/s and read the required storage
  2. Find a demand that needs no reservoir
  3. Raise demand above the mean flow and see what happens

Mass curve (two years)

Cumulative flowDemand lineRequired storage K

Self-check

Three quick questions

01To see "where and when" a flood inundates a watershed, which is more suitable?

02In the dry season, the slope of the mass curve becomes…

03Exercise 8: demand is 40 m³/s; flows from March to June are 35, 25, 15 and 22. What is the cumulative deficit over these four months, in (m³/s)·month?

(m³/s)·month

Summary

Three takeaways

  1. Mathematical models are deterministic (conceptual, parametric) or probabilistic (statistical, stochastic); in space, they are lumped or distributed.
  2. Taiwan: mostly mountains, weak rock, steep fast rivers, heavy and concentrated rain; its specific discharge is the highest in the world.
  3. Mass curve: its slope is the flow; the largest gap between the demand line and the curve is the required reservoir storage.